Confirmation Bias

For instance, someone might believe that sign-up walls make for a bad product for a variety of philosophical reasons, but they justify this decision outwardly by pointing to some data from one product's blog about their A/B test on the subject.

That data is not the reason they decided to ditch sign-up walls. It's just the reason they're giving to others (and often, themselves) about why they made the decision. This behavior represents a sort of homage to science... while simultaneously violating its core principles.

https://blog.andymatuschak.org/post/159340765257/exalting-data-missing-meaning

  • this is different to confirmation bias / positive bias - famous example of giving 2-4-6 as a positive example and asking someone to find out the rule by providing more examples - almost everyone looks for positive examples confirming their idea (4-8-12 for example), instead of looking for negative examples that could give more info (if 2-4-5 is also ok, then it changes what I think about a lot)
  • I think I'm not different here, relying on intuitions most of the time, but I should be more conscious in presenting them as intuitions, instead of looking for positive examples to scientifically confirm what I'm trying to say/do
  • confirmation bias is the bias of looking for information that confirm what we already believe
Szymon Kaliski © 2020
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